Market research case study:
Visitor forecasting

The National Gallery

The challenge

Planning operations, budgets, and programming to accommodate an unknown number of visitors at a major London gallery is highly challenging.

Consequently, the National Gallery commissioned a project to more accurately forecast future footfall at its Trafalgar Square site.

This was a forecasting tool that could predict future profile and volume of visitors to support strategic and budgetary decisions, improve staff resourcing and processes, manage capacity, optimise commercial offerings, and inform product and programme development.

The approach

DJS Research developed a bespoke model using internal data from the National Gallery alongside publicly available, long-standing datasets. This approach ensured the model was grounded in the Gallery’s context, easy to maintain, and capable of being continually updated with new data.

The process included a rigorous data review, collating and analysing hundreds of potential variables to identify those with predictive power. A range of statistical techniques was applied to enhance model accuracy before transferring it to the client team, where it is now fully delivered and managed in-house.

The results

The final model exceeded its original goal, achieving over 90% weekly accuracy. As well as overall volume, it predicts family, international, and exhibition audiences.

As it draws on wide-ranging external data, The National Gallery can predict the impact of planned strikes, inclement weather and reported changes in visitor experience on future attendance.

The forecasts have supported more confident long-term planning and are embedded in the budgeting cycles across all departments.

Visitor forecasting case study image 1 Visitor forecasting case study image 2

Client testimonial: The National Gallery

Culture, heritage & leisure, Quantitative, Qualitative

"It was a real pleasure working with DJS Research. Their enthusiasm and deep knowledge of the museums and galleries sector stood out from the start and made them the obvious choice for this project. The team brought a collaborative spirit and real rigour to the work, and their insights during the early data review phase sparked some genuinely useful internal conversations. The forecasting model they delivered not only exceeded expectations for accuracy – it’s now an integral part of how we plan across the Gallery."

Visitor forecasting case study image 1

Case study:
Visitor forecasting

The National Gallery

The challenge

Planning operations, budgets, and programming to accommodate an unknown number of visitors at a major London gallery is highly challenging.

Consequently, the National Gallery commissioned a project to more accurately forecast future footfall at its Trafalgar Square site.

This was a forecasting tool that could predict future profile and volume of visitors to support strategic and budgetary decisions, improve staff resourcing and processes, manage capacity, optimise commercial offerings, and inform product and programme development.

The approach

The numerical, measurable and objective outputs of quantitative research are critical to building robust data-driven insights. An essential research methodology for monitoring KPIs, from sales figures to satisfaction rates, we use an extensive range of quantitative techniques to deliver robust, scalable datasets for our clients to strengthen business resilience and support future growth.

From tightly structured, closed-question online surveys with thousands of participants, to highly targeted on-street questionnaires, we have the skills and resources to deliver the scale and depth of responses you need.

We craft bespoke quantitative solutions, selecting the best channels and routes of engagement to reach your audience, and often recommend a mixed-mode approach to maximise success. For example, adding targeted postal and self-completion ‘top-ups’ onto a predominantly online survey to ensure less digitally engaged cohorts, who may have limited internet access, are included in research outputs.

Our most frequently used quantitative services

Some of our most frequently used quantitative services include:

As a full-service market research agency with a dedicated Field and Data Services team, we have the scale to provide end-to-end solutions and the agility to deliver specific quantitative services to support specific business needs. For example, clients and research consultants who have their own datasets come to us for specialist support with processing, tabulation and reporting.

Whether you wish to engage a small, clearly defined group – such as 25 senior SME decision-makers in a particular field – or thousands of consumers across a single region or multiple global markets – we can deliver the insights you need.

To find out more about our quantitative research capabilities, and discuss how we could craft a tailored solution to meet the specific needs of your organisation, contact us today. 

 

The results

The final model exceeded its original goal, achieving over 90% weekly accuracy. As well as overall volume, it predicts family, international, and exhibition audiences.

As it draws on wide-ranging external data, The National Gallery can predict the impact of planned strikes, inclement weather and reported changes in visitor experience on future attendance.

The forecasts have supported more confident long-term planning and are embedded in the budgeting cycles across all departments.

Visitor forecasting case study image 2

Client testimonial: The National Gallery

Culture, heritage & leisure, Quantitative, Qualitative

"It was a real pleasure working with DJS Research. Their enthusiasm and deep knowledge of the museums and galleries sector stood out from the start and made them the obvious choice for this project. The team brought a collaborative spirit and real rigour to the work, and their insights during the early data review phase sparked some genuinely useful internal conversations. The forecasting model they delivered not only exceeded expectations for accuracy – it’s now an integral part of how we plan across the Gallery."